Leading U.S. economic data continues to suggest the economy is on path toward recession. The level of the total U.S. monetary base peaked...

The U.S. stock market continues to be buoyed by lagging and coincident economic data. Last week’s fourth quarter +3.3% GDP (gross...

At the December FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell shocked the market with the updated SEP (Summary of Economic...

What a ride November has been. The S&P500 thirty days ago was trading around 4,110, it is now near 4,550. Up 10.6% in four weeks, and...

Since our September update the stock market has weakened considerably. The S&P500 has now taken back all the “AI” gains since the...

At the September FOMC meeting the Fed signaled a pause to interest rates hikes but also suggested another rate hike is more likely than...

At the August Jackson Hole Meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell once again reminded investors of the Federal Reserve’s...

At the July FOMC meeting the committee voted to raise interest rates an additional 25 basis points to a new target range of 5.25%-5.50%....

At the June FOMC meeting the Federal Reserve's updated Summary of Economic Projections showed the 2023 year end median fed funds rate...

Since our April market update, the banking crisis has worsened. Following the failures of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank in...

The S&P 500 has rallied from 3810 to 4175 since the banking crisis unfolded in the middle of March. After the Federal Reserve stepped in...

What the Federal Reserve, FDIC and Treasury has done is not a corporate taxpayer bailout. The banks' equity and bondholders are being...

Federal Reserve policy works with long and variable lags. The economy will likely not feel the full effect of the Feds rate hikes until...

The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise 25 basis points at the February 1st FOMC meeting. The Fed is likely to continue to...

The Federal Reserve is going to keep financial conditions tight until they are confident inflation is back to their 2% target. The...