The July FOMC meeting was the second meeting for new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. The Committee decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Interest rates have risen since the end of the FOMC meeting. 30-year interest rates are now at the highest level in nineteen years. 30 year interest rate Despite Chairman Warsh's desire to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, it continues to grow. The financial system is extremely dependent on the small asse

The June FOMC meeting was the first meeting for new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. The Committee decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Warsh immediately began making changes to the way the Federal Reserve communicates by drastically shortening the FOMC statement, removing forward guidance, and refusing to provide an outlook via the dot plot. The statement was short and concise, six to seven sentences and ended by reading, “The Committee will delive

At the May FOMC meeting the committee once again decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Over the past month the level of bank reserves (blue) in the chart below has risen as the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (orange) stayed relatively the same. The plumbing in the financial system continues to be extremely dependent on the small asset purchase program (QE) the Fed began at the December 2025 FOMC meeting. The small asset purchase program will have to grow

At the April FOMC meeting the committee decided not to cut interest rates, leaving the federal funds effective rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The level of bank reserves and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has risen since the end of 2025, but recently pulled back, signifying tightening of liquidity in the banking system and a scarcity of cash. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, desire to shrink the Federal Reserves balance sheet will no doubt be tested, as current financial conditions

At the March FOMC meeting the Fed once again decided not to cut interest rates. Since the December meeting when the Fed decided to restart asset purchases (QE) on a small scale, liquidity has improved, but as previously hypothesized, these actions have not prevented employment growth from declining or helped the hiring rate to rise. Reserve Balances The Fed cited risks from the labor market, inflation expectations, and the war with Iran as reasons not to cut. As commodity pri

Since the December FOMC meeting, when the Fed decided to once again embark on small asset purchases, otherwise known as QE, liquidity has improved. Mostly through the level of reserves in the banking system being boosted by the asset purchases. As previously mentioned, these actions will not prevent employment growth from declining. As the market is forward looking, gold and silver prices have soared in response to this policy change from the Fed. Consequently, at the January